A global warmitarian loses faith

July 24th, 2008

From Down Under:

I DEVOTED six years to carbon accounting, building models for the Australian Greenhouse Office. I am the rocket scientist who wrote the carbon accounting model (FullCAM) that measures Australia’s compliance with the Kyoto Protocol, in the land use change and forestry sector.

When I started that job in 1999 the evidence that carbon emissions caused global warming seemed pretty good: CO2 is a greenhouse gas, the old ice core data, no other suspects.

The evidence was not conclusive, but why wait until we were certain when it appeared we needed to act quickly? Soon government and the scientific community were working together and lots of science research jobs were created. We scientists had political support, the ear of government, big budgets, and we felt fairly important and useful (well, I did anyway). It was great. We were working to save the planet.

But since 1999 new evidence has seriously weakened the case that carbon emissions are the main cause of global warming, and by 2007 the evidence was pretty conclusive that carbon played only a minor role and was not the main cause of the recent global warming. As Lord Keynes famously said, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”

I recently was fortunate enough to see a presentation by Dr. John Christy of UAH about the subject of man made climate change.  The venue in which I saw Dr. Christy was mostly very technical, full of scientists and engineers.  It was a good audience for him because we could understand the numbers he presented and no one blinked when he talked about a nonlinear dynamic model.  I found one of Christy’s presentations on YouTube.  Yes, it’s long, but it is worth the time investment.  The sound is a bit low, so turn up your speakers.

Committee on Water Policy and Management

June 24th, 2008

When the well’s dry, we know the worth of water.

- Ben Franklin, Poor Richard’s Almanac

From A History of Water Rights at Common Law, by Joshua Getzler, which is now on my Xmas List (only $50 at Amazon):

Water resources were central to England’s precocious economic development in the thirteenth and sixteenth centuries, and then again in the industrial, transport, and urban revolutions of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. Each of these periods saw a great deal of legal conflict over water rights, often between domestic, agricultural, and manufacturing interests competing for access to flowing water. From 1750 the common-law courts developed a large but unstable body of legal doctrine, specifying strong property rights in flowing water attached to riparian possession, and also limited rights to surface and underground waters.

The new water doctrines were built from older concepts of common goods and the natural rights of ownership, deriving from Roman and Civilian law, together with the English sources of Bracton and Blackstone. Water law is one of the most Romanesque parts of English law, demonstrating the extent to which Common and Civilian law have commingled.

Alabama water rights are determined under Riparian Rights for surface waters.  The United Kingdom and most U.S. States East of the Mississippi River follow Riparian Rights (derived from English Common Law); most Western States use the Prior Appropriation doctrine.  Basically, water is owned by the Government (Federal and State), so proper stewardship of this public resource is a function of Government.

Riparian water rights occur as a result of landownership. A landowner who owns land that physically touches a river, stream, pond, or lake has an equal right to the use of water from that source. This water right, however, is only a usufructuary right and not a property right in the water. The water may be used as it passes through the property of the land owner, but it cannot be unreasonably detained or diverted, and it must be returned to the stream from which it was obtained. The use of riparian water rights is generally regulated by “reasonable use.”  

The prior appropriation doctrine (also known as the Colorado Doctrine from Wyoming v. Colorado), or “first in time - first in right”, developed in the western United States in response to the scarcity of water in the region.

Legislative committee takes first step toward water policy

The Permanent Joint Legislative Committee on Water Policy and Management met at Auburn University in its first meeting since being formed this spring. The committee is made up of seven members each from the House and Senate.

Its members at the meeting chose State Sen. Kim Benefield, D-Woodland, chairman and Rep. Greg Canfield, R-Vestavia Hills vice chairman. The pair sponsored the legislation that created the committee… the group is to recommend a water management plan that expands the availability of water to meet Alabama’s current and future needs, develop conservation programs, and identify areas where more research is needed.

Workshop sessions are being led by officials from Auburn’s Water Resources Center, the Alabama Cooperative Extension Service, the Geological Survey of Alabama, the Alabama Office of Water Resources, and the Alabama Department of Environmental Management.

Investing in state’s waterways, by State Senator Kim Benefield (D - Woodland) and State Representative Greg Canfield (R - Birmingham):

Created by the passage of SJR28 — bipartisan legislation we were pleased to sponsor — the committee met at Auburn University to begin the process of studying Alabama’s water resources and assessing our future water needs…

Our recognition of the many critical roles water plays in Alabama spurred us to sponsor SJR28, and now we are committed — as chair and vice-chair of the Permanent Joint Legislative Committee on Water Policy and Management — to developing a consensus-based water-management plan that takes into account the needs of every Alabamian and serves our citizens well in the future.

 

Do as I say, not as I do

June 18th, 2008

Ah, I do love it when prominent individuals tell us how to live our lives - directives that often include sacrifice and hardship - while not subjecting themselves to the same restraints.

In the year since Al Gore took steps to make his home more energy-efficient, the former Vice President’s home energy use surged more than 10%, according to the Tennessee Center for Policy Research.

In the past year, Gore’s home burned through 213,210 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity, enough to power 232 average American households for a month.

After the Tennessee Center for Policy Research exposed Gore’s massive home energy use, the former Vice President scurried to make his home more energy-efficient. Despite adding solar panels, installing a geothermal system, replacing existing light bulbs with more efficient models, and overhauling the home’s windows and ductwork, Gore now consumes more electricity than before the “green” overhaul.

Since taking steps to make his home more environmentally-friendly last June, Gore devours an average of 17,768 kWh per month -1,638 kWh more energy per month than before the renovations - at a cost of $16,533. By comparison, the average American household consumes 11,040 kWh in an entire year, according to the Energy Information Administration.

If only the global warmitarians would wake up and realize that their spiritual leader isn’t doing all he could do, such as live in a modest, energy thrifty home…

The Flint River and the EPA and Poo

June 10th, 2008

The Clean Water Act of 1972 Section 305 established biennial reporting to Congress, called the National Water Quality Inventory.  The EPA gathers river water quality assessments using 305-(b) Reports (the latest online assessment data for the Flint River is 2004).  For lakes, the similar report is the 314 Report.  If a river is “impaired” then it goes on a State list called the 303(d) List.

Here’s the EPA calling the Flint River a Success Story:

Runoff from agricultural activities and urbanization contributed to organic enrichment and dissolved oxygen (DO) impairments in the lower mainstem of the Flint River in Alabama. The implementation of best management practices (BMPs) and stakeholder education and outreach enhanced water quality and helped the Flint River meet the water quality standards associated with its designated water use classifications. As a result, the Alabama Department of Environmental Management (ADEM) expects to remove a 28-mile segment of the Flint River from the state’s 2006 303(d) list of impaired waters.

The 20 mile stretch of the Flint River from the Tennessee River to Big Cove Creek 305(b) Report:

Water Quality Attainments

State Designated Use Attainment Status Threatened
CONTACT RECREATION NOT SUPPORTING No
FISHING NOT SUPPORTING No
PROPAGATION OF FISH AND WILDLIFE NOT SUPPORTING No
INDUSTRIAL AND AGRICULTURE USES NOT SUPPORTING No

Causes of Impairment 

State Impairment EPA Impairment Classification
ORGANIC ENRICHMENT/DO ORGANIC ENRICHMENT/OXYGEN DEPLETION

Probable Sources Contributing to Impairment

The sources listed below may contribute to one or more of the above-listed impairments.

State Source EPA Source Classification
URBAN RUNOFF/STORM SEWERS URBAN-RELATED RUNOFF/STORMWATER
AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURE

The 7 mile stretch of the Flint River from Big Cove Creek to Hurricane Creek 305(b) Report:

Causes of Impairment

State Impairment EPA Impairment Classification
ORGANIC ENRICHMENT/DO ORGANIC ENRICHMENT/OXYGEN DEPLETION

Probable Sources Contributing to Impairment

The sources listed below may contribute to one or more of the above-listed impairments.

State Source EPA Source Classification
URBAN RUNOFF/STORM SEWERS URBAN-RELATED RUNOFF/STORMWATER
AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURE

The 15 mile stretch of the Flint River from Alabama Highway 72 to Mountain Fork 305(b) Report:

Causes of Impairment

State Impairment EPA Impairment Classification
PATHOGENS PATHOGENS

Probable Sources Contributing to Impairment

State Source EPA Source Classification
PASTURE GRAZING AGRICULTURE

After reading these summary reports, my first thought is: eww, I know what “organic enrichment” and “pathogens” are and I might have gotten some on me.  It’s Cow Poo. And probably some People Poo, too, from failing septic tanks.

I called the local hero of the EPA Success Story mentioned above, our Flint River Watershed Coordinator, to learn more (important facts like he’s an Auburn grad).

Organic Enrichment means excessive nutrients such as fertilizer, manure (Poo!), and organic matter; the nutrients cause algae to bloom which suck all the air out of the river (oxygen depletion). Urban runoff is pretty much what you’d expect, and then some: dirt, gas / oil, fertilizers, pesticides, road grime, and whatever else that makes it into the gutters.  Pathogens are high counts of harmful bacteria, like fecal coliforms / enterococcus (Poo!).

I’ll do a follow-up post to describe the horrors of the State 303(d) List, which includes DDT, Mercury, and Arsenic in Huntsville Spring Branch (the big creek next to the soccer fields at the old airport).

Flint River Clean Up

June 7th, 2008

The Flint River Conservation Association, the City Of Huntsville Operation Green Team, and WAAY TV  sponsored the Flint River Clean Up today as part of the National River Clean Up. Thanks to The Huntsville Times for promoting the Clean Up in Thursday’s newspaper.

Turn out was good, with about 40 people showing up to canoe and pick up trash. City Ecologist Soos Weber was well-prepared with canoes from Redstone Arsenal, gloves, grabbers, trash bags, and plenty of water and sunscreen.  I got to meet some great people, including a like-minded fellow from Harvest who enjoys helping Mother Gaia by clearing brush with his chainsaw.

WAAY TV (Channel 31) sent their new reporter Haley Baker to cover the Clean Up, which should air tonight.  They got some great footage of the pile of garbage - just imagine what that pile would be like in smell-e-vision.

Most of the Flint River Watershed lies within Madison County District 1 (Roger Jones - D) and District 3 (Jerry Craig - D), with just a little bit of District 5 (Mo Brooks - R). 

Mo Brooks was kind enough to respond to the Flashpoint Madison County Commission questionnaire, which asked about “protecting the Flint River”:

Two things can be done to help protect the Flint River. First, Madison County needs a sewage system that will help minimize pollution of ground water supplies and storm runoff into the Flint River. Second, Madison County needs the power to restrict or prevent siphoning of water from the Flint River during low water flow periods.

Bob Long, GOP candidate for District 1, was also kind enough to respond:

I live directly on the Flint River, my family and I canoe, fish and swim in the Flint River so I have a vested interest in protecting this valuable natural resource. I will work hand-in-hand with conservationists to make sure the river is clean, safe and environmentally balanced (new construction, industrial growth, and recreation). I would ensure that as necessary, I will provide support to some of the volunteer and state organizations that are chartered to preserve the Flint River such as; the Madison County Soil and Water Conservation District (SWCD) and the Flint River Conservation Association (FRCA).

Protecting our natural heritage is good public policy.

 

find out when you should die!

May 29th, 2008

The Greenhouse Calculator calculates “what age you should die at so you don’t use more than your fair share of Earth’s resources!”  This (State-owned) Australian Broadcasting Corporation website for kids compares your CO2 production to the “Average Aussie greenhouse pig” and to “an environmentally-sustainable ‘green’ pig”.

From Cassy Fiano via Rachel Lucas.

 

Carbon rationing in Britain

May 28th, 2008

This is just crazy.  From Britain’s Daily Mail:

Every adult should be forced to use a ‘carbon ration card’ when they pay for petrol, airline tickets or household energy, MPs say.

The influential Environmental Audit Committee says a personal carbon trading scheme is the best and fairest way of cutting Britain’s CO2 emissions without penalising the poor.

Under the scheme, everyone would be given an annual carbon allowance to use when buying oil, gas, electricity and flights.

Anyone who exceeds their entitlement would have to buy top-up credits from individuals who haven’t used up their allowance. The amount paid would be driven by market forces and the deal done through a specialist company.

As usual, the Cato Institute has some sage analysis of yet another harebrained government idea.

Britain’s parliamentary proposal to require all adults to carry a ‘carbon ration card’ would result in the absolute destruction of personal privacy with no detectable impact on global climate. The proposed card would track virtually all personal movements and purchases (including food), reporting them to the government. The cost of the loss of privacy is outweighed by absolutely no climatic benefit. The United Kingdom is a minor emitter of carbon dioxide, accounting for a tiny fraction compared to the emissions of China, now the world’s largest source of carbon dioxide, where there is certainly no attempt to reduce personal use of energy.

Further, for such a program to be effective, the cost of energy would have to be so high that the British economy would grind to a halt. Stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide requires 60-80% reductions in emissions worldwide. Here in the United States, $4.00 per gallon gasoline is cutting use by a few percent. What price is required for an 80% reduction, and is this worth surrendering virtually all of one’s privacy to the government?

CBS Sports Airs Texas Bass Classic

May 7th, 2008

This Sunday, May 11, at 4:00 PM Central, CBS Sports (WHNT - 19) will air the Toyota Texas Bass Classic, taped April 20, at Lake Fork, Texas. This historic broadcast will be the first time a bass fishing tournament is aired to a nationally televised audience, possibly taking the sport to new levels.

You may ask yourself, why is this posted on a Huntsville political blog?

Let’s start with Huntsville’s Own Fishing Legend, Travis Rulle, FLW Pro Angler.  His team placed 10th in the tournament.

B.A.S.S. Founder Ray Scott (”We were teaching fishing and preaching anti-pollution”), of Montgomery, campaigned with Mike Huckabee here in Huntsville.

Bass Pro Shops is opening a new store at the intersection of I-65 and I-565, part of the $1.3 billion Sweetwater project.

Fishing is one of the most popular sports in the USA, with about 30 million fishing licenses sold nationwide.  Alabama is one of the nation’s premier fishing destinations.  Fishing requires clean water and good fisheries management.  And as an example of public-private partnership, Texas teamed with Budweiser to help fund fish genetics research (Budweiser ShareLunker Program). 

Conservation of our natural resources is good public policy.

 

Time for a little I told you so

April 28th, 2008

Part 1

Many times for over a year I’ve decried the foolish headlong government plunge into ethanol. Basically anytime the government anoints a winner in the marketplace the government will be proven wrong for any number of reasons. One of the many predictable outcomes of increased governmental support for ethanol, higher food prices, has become a reality.

The Washington Post had a good column recently aptly titled “Ethanol’s Failed Promise” that outlined the many flaws with biofuels. I was particularly amused by the line, “Food-to-fuel mandates were created for the right reasons.” Ohhhh, the liberal’s lament. It’s always about good intentions with them, not sound, well reasoned policy. Any degree of government interference is justifiable if your heart is pure.

Seriously, who thought it was a good idea to use precious arable land for fuel production instead of food production while there are still people starving in the world?

Part 2

On a related topic, I recently wrote that John McCain’s proposal to eliminate the federal fuel tax for the summer revealed his lack of adherence to the global warming creed. Eliminating the tax would encourage more consumption of fuel, which is exactly the opposite of what a devout global warmitarian would want. Now the Wall Street Journal has come to the same conclusion. They state that proposals such as McCain’s make “a hash out of the climate-change policies that the candidate purports to favor.”

If such politicians were honestly concerned with the survival of our species their recourse would be simple and easy to make: artificially force up fuel prices. Tax it. Regulate it. Bludgeon it to death. Instead what we get are politicians who seem to be eager to just gain more power and control since their contradictory cocktail of policies belie their tenuous belief in the man-made global warming faith.

Update: More on McCain’s hypocrisy from Newsweek:

[A]ttorney and former GM exec Frank Dunne finds the climate-change hawk’s call for a gas-tax holiday “intellectually dishonest.”

[Tom Kloza, energy analyst with the Oil Price Information Service] goes a bit further, calling a gas-tax holiday “caca.” “It represents pandering. You’re not leveling with the American public,” says Kloza.

Beach Monitoring and Poo

April 25th, 2008

I’ll be headed to the beach this Summer: going to Fort Morgan for fun in the sun, Tacky Jacks 2 (by the Fort), Candlelight Tour of the Fort (with Ghost Stories), and the trails of BON SECOUR National Wildlife Refuge. So this news report got my attention:

The Alabama Department of Public Health issued a swimming advisory today for the waters of Bon Secour Bay at Mary Ann Nelson Park.

Two recent successive tests of water quality at the park were poor. The advisory warned that swimming in this area might lead to an increased risk of illness.

Monitoring will continue and the advisory will be lifted once bacteria values fall below the Environmental Protection Agency’s threshold of 104 enterococcus organisms per 100 milliliters for marine water, according to the statement.

The Health Department retested the site and it is clean. Here’s a link to the ADEM / ADPH Beach Monitoring website, which includes the test results at 25 sites in Baldwin and Mobile Counties (BTW all clean).

The ‘enterococcus’ bacteria (Poo) contamination reporting took the place of the old ‘fecal coliform’ (Poo), because it correlates better to human pathogens found in sewage.

I spoke with a really nice Environmental guy (Byron) from the Baldwin County Health Department (which administers the Beach Monitoring program). He said it was “hard to say” why the Poo levels exceeded the threshold, adding that it was “unusual” for that area. He said it might be that “a pelican dropped a load”, which could give an unexpected test result.

The Fairhope and Gulf Shores areas are on sewer systems, so the poo probably wasn’t human. Other than pelicans, it might be dog poo sewerage runoff or cow poo runoff from ranches. ADEM / ADPH is fixing to develop a system of “source tracking” that would further classify the poo, which could lead to improved remediation.

In order to make the poo threshold explainable to me and children, I asked the guy just what the enterococcus level might be in an unflushed toilet. He didn’t care to estimate, but he did say that a sewer spill (that “you couldn’t even smell”) he had dealt with had levels between 3,000 to 5,000 colonies per mL of water.