Senate 7 Primary vs General Election Turnout

Posted on June 13, 2009 by Reactionary

Brian compared the turnout in the State Senate District 7 Primary Election to the turnout in the General Election. Here are the results:

Really, the Dems did a better job relative to the primary than the GOP. 117% increase vs. 103% increase for the good guys. Looking at the percent of votes going to each party at each precinct the Dems increased at 29 and GOP increased at only 17 with no change at the rest. There was no more than an 8 point party swing at any box with over 100 votes. The summer break at A&M hurt Hall. Turnout doubled at most precincts, but only rose by 16% there. Probably cost her 170 votes. Wouldn’t have closed the gap, of course.

The bottom line, as I see it, is that one cannot look at the voting data and ascertain any real differences in voting based on race/geography from the primary to the general. Both the Dems and GOP roughly doubled their turn out. Hard to claim to see any racial/geographic divide that wasn’t already present. The good news for GOP is that despite having a wide open primary it looks like all voters coalesced behind the nominee.

Most every poll had double the turn out. Remarkably consistent.

So, the Democrat’s Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts appear to have been successful. The “I voted” stickers on tombstones around the County are proof of that (it’s a joke but what makes it funny is the history / current practice of Democratic Party electoral shenanigans).

In another post we’ll look at cost per vote, also known as Teachers having their AEA dues spent on ‘paid volunteers’ and robocalls for the Democrats.

FYI the AEA spends about $3,000,000 on political campaigns, almost every bit of it to Democratic Party candidates (AEA’s Paul Hubbert is also vice-chairman of the Alabama Democratic Party). I say almost every bit of it because last year the AEA appears to have spent about half a million dollars trying to “hijack” the Republican Primary for the State School Board (e.g., Smithwick).

Teachers – is that how you want your AEA dues spent - subverting the political process in Alabama?

Senate 7 Election Results – 2009

Posted on June 11, 2009 by Reactionary

Republican Paul Sanford defeated Democrat Laura Hall for the Alabama State Senate District 7 seat Tuesday with 57% of the vote. 20,891 people voted out of the 96,302 registered voters in District 7 for a turn out of 22% (compare that to 72% turn out in Madison County last November, also note that there are 212,574 voters in Madison County).

Top boxes were: Cove United Methodist Church (1847 – 89% Sanford), Covenant Presbyterian Church (944 – 85% Sanford), Blossomwood School (942 – 81% Sanford), Johnson High School (862 – 89% Hall), and Chapman Middle School (845 – 80% GOP). One could say that voters at both Cove and Johnson were like lemmings in their support for their respective candidates.

Sanford won seven of the top ten boxes (with 65% to 89%). Hall won three of the top ten boxes (with 88% to 95%).

Top Republican boxes were: Cove, Covenant, Blossomwood, Chapman, and Chaffee (578 – 87% Sanford).

Top Democrat boxes were: Johnson, First Missionary Baptist (666 – 88% Hall), Showers Center (616 – 95% Hall), Ed White (509 – 79% Hall), and New Shiloh Church (463 – 90% Hall).

The Probate Judges Office reported straight party voting – this is the first time I’ve seen them do this. In this election, ballots only had two lines: straight party or by candidate. I’m not sure what to make of the numbers this time, but I hope that the Probate Judge continues to report the information.

The Democrat straight party voting was 3,851 out of 8,872 Democrat votes (43%). The Republican straight party voting was 2,157 out of 11,984 Republican votes (18%).

Brian and I are going to compare the primary and general election turnout next, so be on the lookout for an update…

Senate 7 Primary Results Box Summary

Posted on March 5, 2009 by Reactionary

The Madison County Probate Judge’s Office Election Results page was updated with box results today.

There is a five vote difference in the Democrat totals, detailed numbers total 4090 but the Election Results sum total was 4085. I guess they’ll get that figured out when the Official Results are certified next week.

Top boxes were: Cove United Methodist Church (885 – 89% GOP), Blossomwood School (555 – 88% GOP), Covenant Presbyterian Church (527 – 86%), Johnson High School (428 – 92% DEM), and Chapman Middle School (424 – 78% GOP).

Top GOP boxes were: Cove UMC, Blossomwood, Covenant, Chapman, and Chaffee (424 – 83% GOP).

Sam Givhan’s top boxes were: Cove UMC, Covenant (where he trailed Hunter), and Blossomwood (where he trailed Sanford and virtually tied Hunter). Givhan got 80% of OXR’s 15 GOP voters.

Mary Scott Hunter’s top boxes were: Cove UMC (where she trailed Givhan), Covenant, and Blossomwood (where she trailed Sanford and tied Givhan). Hunter got 100% of Whitesburg Boat Harbor’s 3 GOP voters.

Allan Rhodes’ top boxes were: Blossomwood (5th), First Baptist Church of Meridianville (where he trailed Givhan), and Mountain View Baptist (5th). Rhodes got 33% of Blackburn Chapel’s 3 GOP voters.

Roger Richardson’s top boxes were: Cove UMC (where he trailed Givhan and Hunter), Chaffee (where he trailed Hunter), and Blossomwood (4th). Richardson got 100% of Calvary Friendship Center’s 2 GOP voters.

Paul Sanford’s top boxes were: Blossomwood, Trinity UMC, and Cove UMC (4th). Sanford got 46% of Trinity’s 262 GOP voters.

Peter Wright’s top boxes were: Covenant (5th), Ridgecrest (5th), and Cove UMC (6th). Wright got 14% of the Senior Center’s 14 GOP voters.

Top DEM boxes were: Johnson, First Missionary Baptist (373 – 89% DEM), Showers Center (329 – 96% DEM), New Shiloh Church (242 – 93% DEM), and Ed White (263 – 76% DEM).

Representative Laura Hall’s top boxes were: Johnson, First Missionary Baptist, and Showers Center. Hall got 100% of Blackburn CP Chapel’s 4 DEM voters.

Anthony Daniels’ top boxes were: A&M (the only real box where he beat Hall), Johnson, and First Missionary Baptist. Daniels got 100% of OXR’s 1 DEM voter (his only other winning box).

If you want a copy of the XL spreadsheet with the box results, let me know in the comments – I only ask that you share whatever insight you derive from it with the rest of us.

Senate 7 Primary Results

Posted on March 3, 2009 by Reactionary

PROVISIONAL = 56 of 57 boxes reporting (98.25%)

Here are the Unofficial Madison County Probate Judge Election Results with 56 of 57 precincts reporting. The 57th precinct is for Provisional Ballots, which will be counted when the Election is certified by the Probate Judge Tuesday March 10 at noon.

Precinct details should be available on the ‘Election Results’ website as early as Thursday. Fun!

The GOP Primary Runoff between Sam Givhan and Paul Sanford is April 21, 2009 and the winner will face Democrat Laura Hall in the General Election on June 9, 2009.

Turnout was surprisingly low at 10%, with 9,976 out of 96,302 registered voters facing the brisk sunny day to vote.

Rebublican voters numbered 5,891 or 60%, while Democrat voters numbered 4,085 or 40%.

Democrat Laura Hall (3,256 votes / 80%) defeated Anthony Daniels (834 votes / 20%).

Republicans:

Sam Givhan received 1,736 votes ( 30%).

Paul Sanford received 1,336 votes (23%).

Mary Scott Hunter received 1,276 votes (22%).

Roger Richardson received 1,176 votes (20%).

Allan Rhodes received 255 votes (4%).

Peter Wright received 112 votes (2%).

IMO Sanford, Hunter, and Richardson chased many of the same votes – if true, then Sanford may defeat Givhan in the Runoff. However, the Rule of Thumb is that the Primary Runoff turnout will be 2 / 3 of the Primary turnout. Assuming 4,000 GOP voters turn out in April and assuming that the Runoff candidate’s supporters turn out again - Sam Givhan only needs to pick up 300 votes versus Sanford needing 700 votes.

It will be interesting to see if the other GOP candidates throw their support behind either Givhan or Sanford. It might make a difference in a close race.

Vote Tuesday – Senate 7 Roundup

Posted on March 2, 2009 by Reactionary

Tuesday March 3 is the Primary Election for State Senate District 7.

VOTE!

The Madison County Board of Registrars says that 96,302 voters are registered to vote in the State Senate 7 race.

Estimating turnout is difficult for a special election, but Dr. Jess Brown of Athens State University expects about 15 – 20% turnout, with the GOP possibly having higher turnout because of the number of candidates – ”competition breeds interest”.

Patricia McCarter of The Huntsville Times interviewed Dr. Brown for her article State Senate vote turns on race, ethics, expert says. Read the whole thing for insight from my favorite PoliSci Professor, written by one of the Times best reporters.

DEMOCRATS:

The Huntsville Times gave a backhanded endorsement to Laura Hall (D – 19), with the caveat:

The Times recommends Hall, but with a caveat.

Hall resigned her longtime administrative post at Calhoun Community College last year. She left when several state officials, including the head of the two-year system, came under investigation. A fellow legislator, Sue Schmitz, was recently convicted of fraud in connection with a state job she was given.

I endorsed Anthony Daniels, with the caveat that I’m not voting Democrat; Brian concurred.

Laura Hall Campaign

Hall Times Article

Didn’t respond to Flashpoint questionnaire

Anthony Daniels Campaign

Daniels Times Article

Didn’t respond to Flashpoint questionnaire

REPUBLICANS:

The Huntsville Times endorsed Roger Richardson, Brian endorsed Paul Sanford, and I endorsed Mary Scott Hunter. All I can say is “I agree with all of us”.

Jeff Barnett at The Midnight Hour posted his Quick Analysis of Alabama Senate 7 Candidates.

Sam Givhan Campaign

Givhan Times Article

Givhan Flashpoint Questionnaire

Mary Scott Hunter Campaign

Hunter Times Article

Hunter Flashpoint Questionnaire

Allan Rhodes Campaign

Rhodes Times Article

Rhodes Flashpoint Questionnaire

Roger Richardson Campaign

Richardson Times Article