Tag Archives: al senate 7th district

Senate 7 Primary vs General Election Turnout

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Brian compared the turnout in the State Senate District 7 Primary Election to the turnout in the General Election.  Here are the results:

Really, the Dems did a better job relative to the primary than the GOP.  117% increase vs. 103% increase for the good guys.  Looking at the percent of votes going to each party at each precinct the Dems increased at 29 and GOP increased at only 17 with no change at the rest.  There was no more than an 8 point party swing at any box with over 100 votes.  The summer break at A&M hurt Hall.  Turnout doubled at most precincts, but only rose by 16% there.  Probably cost her 170 votes.  Wouldn’t have closed the gap, of course.

The bottom line, as I see it, is that one cannot look at the voting data and ascertain any real differences in voting based on race/geography from the primary to the general.  Both the Dems and GOP roughly doubled their turn out.  Hard to claim to see any racial/geographic divide that wasn’t already present.  The good news for GOP is that despite having a wide open primary it looks like all voters coalesced behind the nominee.

Most every poll had double the turn out.  Remarkably consistent.

So, the Democrat’s Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts appear to have been successful.  The “I voted” stickers on tombstones around the County are proof of that  (it’s a joke but what makes it funny is the history / current practice of Democratic Party electoral shenanigans).

In another post we’ll look at cost per vote, also known as Teachers having their AEA dues spent on ‘paid volunteers’ and robocalls for the Democrats. 

FYI the AEA spends about $3,000,000 on political campaigns, almost every bit of it to Democratic Party candidates (AEA’s Paul Hubbert is also vice-chairman of the Alabama Democratic Party).  I say almost every bit of it because last year the AEA appears to have spent about half a million dollars trying to “hijack” the Republican Primary for the State School Board (e.g., Smithwick).

Teachers – is that how you want your AEA dues spent - subverting the political process in Alabama?

Senate 7 Election Results – 2009

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Republican Paul Sanford defeated Democrat Laura Hall for the Alabama State Senate District 7 seat Tuesday with 57% of the vote.  20,891 people voted out of the 96,302 registered voters in District 7 for a turn out of 22% (compare that to 72% turn out in Madison County last November, also note that there are 212,574 voters in Madison County).

Top boxes were: Cove United Methodist Church (1847 – 89% Sanford), Covenant Presbyterian Church (944 – 85% Sanford), Blossomwood School (942 – 81% Sanford),  Johnson High School (862 – 89% Hall), and Chapman Middle School (845 – 80% GOP).  One could say that voters at both Cove and Johnson were like lemmings in their support for their respective candidates.

Sanford won seven of the top ten boxes (with 65% to 89%). Hall won three of the top ten boxes (with 88% to 95%).

Top Republican boxes were: Cove, Covenant, Blossomwood, Chapman, and Chaffee (578 – 87% Sanford).

Top Democrat boxes were: Johnson, First Missionary Baptist (666 – 88% Hall), Showers Center (616 – 95% Hall), Ed White (509 – 79% Hall), and New Shiloh Church (463 – 90% Hall).

The Probate Judges Office reported straight party voting – this is the first time I’ve seen them do this.  In this election, ballots only had two lines: straight party or by candidate.  I’m not sure what to make of the numbers this time, but I hope that the Probate Judge continues to report the information.

The Democrat straight party voting was 3,851 out of 8,872 Democrat votes (43%).  The Republican straight party voting was 2,157 out of 11,984 Republican votes (18%).

Brian and I are going to compare the primary and general election turnout next, so be on the lookout for an update…

Senate 7 GOP Runoff Details

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Turnout for the Alabama State Senate 7 GOP Primary Runoff was 4,966 voters – or 84% of the GOP Primary turnout (the heuristic is 66%).  This implies a highly motivated base; the GOP Runoff turned out more than the Democrat Primary back in March (4,085).  Keep in mind that there are 96,302 registered voters in the Senate 7 district.

Paul Sanford won with 2961 votes (60%) compared to Sam Givhan’s 2005 votes (40%).  I must admit that this is not what I expected at all – Givhan was poised to win the runoff – but between Sanford’s hustle and the HHA blow up (which splattered on Sam), Paul was able to win by a large margin.  I saw both candidates on Monday – Paul seemed calm and confident, Sam seemed a little agitated – something was up…

The TOP FIVE boxes were Cove UMC (722 votes – 51% Sanford), Blossomwood (409 – 62% Sanford), Covenant (357 – 61% Sanford), Chaffee (304 – 80% Sanford), and Chapman (255 – 60% Sanford).

Sanford won 44 boxes, with his largest wins at Chaffee (186 vote margin), Trinity (116 vote margin) and Blossomwood (99 vote margin).

Givhan won 12 boxes, but his largest win was at Plainview Church with a margin of 19 votes.

After the Primary I thought that: ”Sanford, Hunter, and Richardson chased many of the same votes – if true, then Sanford may defeat Givhan in the Runoff”.

If this was a referendum on the HHA,  elected officials just got a wake up call.

Sanford Wins Senate 7 Runoff

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Paul Sanford defeats Sam Givhan in the State Senate 7 Republican Runoff.  Sam called Paul to concede the race before 8PM.

Sanford won 60% of the vote, overcoming a Primary lead by Givhan.  Turnout was better than expected, with almost 5000 voters making their way to the polls.

Here’s how the situation looked in March:

…the Rule of Thumb is that the Primary Runoff turnout will be 2 / 3 of the Primary turnout.  Assuming 4,000 GOP voters turn out in April and assuming that the Runoff candidate’s supporters turn out again - Sam Givhan only needs to pick up 300 votes versus Sanford needing 700 votes.

What I find interesting is that Givhan picked up his 300 votes, and could have been predicted to win based on statistical modeling.  But real life has a way of acting outside of the model; I wonder if the HHA blow up hurt Sam.

I’ll also note that Sanford has been wearing his shoes out working for votes, plus he’s been at many local Government meetings listening and learning  (HHA Board, City Council, Tea Party, Chaffee – and that’s just the past week).

Congratulations Paul. Good race Sam.  You guys set the standard for how to conduct a campaign…

Senate 7 – Rhodes Endorses Sanford

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Press Release from the Paul Sanford campaign:

Former Candidate Allan Rhodes Endorses Paul Sanford

(HUNTSVILLE, ALABAMA)—Allan Rhodes, a former Republican candidate for the Alabama Senate in District 7, has endorsed Paul Sanford in the April 21st Republican runoff.

In a letter to Mr. Sanford dated March 25th, Mr. Rhodes wrote, “It is with great pleasure that I offer my endorsement to you (Paul Sanford) for the office of Alabama State Senator District 7.” Mr. Rhodes further wrote, “It is time that we take a business approach to the people’s business and get the sound financial leadership into the legislature that I know you bring to the table.”

“I am honored to have Allan’s endorsement, and I welcome his supporters to our camp. He is, without question, an honest and committed person whose reputation in our community is stellar,” Mr. Sanford said.

Paul Sanford faces attorney Sam Givhan in the Republican runoff election slated for April 21st. The winner of that contest will face Democrat Laura Hall in the special general election on June 9th.

Paul Sanford and his wife Danielle own and operate “little Paul’s Barbecue” in Huntsville. They have two children, Chase and Ryan.

Candidate Sanford Calls on Givhan and Hall to Disclose Money Sources

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Press Release from the Paul Sanford Campaign:

(HUNTSVILLE, ALABAMA)—Paul Sanford, a Republican candidate for the Alabama Senate in the April 21st special election runoff, today issued a challenge to Republican candidate Sam Givhan and Democratic nominee Laura Hall to disclose the sources of money they both received from special interest political action committees (PACs) during the course of their campaigns.

Paperwork filed with the Alabama Secretary of State’s elections division indicates Mr. Givhan received $46,523.69 from PACs. According to Mr. Givhan’s campaign disclosure forms, TOC PAC, Children’s PAC and STA PAC, registered as political action committees in Birmingham, gave Mr. Givhan a total of  $25,000 in mid-February. None of the three PACs has filed a report detailing where those monies originated. Karen Davidson of Birmingham is listed as Chairperson of the three PACs. In addition, Mr. Givhan reported receiving another $8,100 from TAG PAC and Deserve Victory PAC, both registered in Montgomery with Claire Austin listed as the Chairperson. Senate Majority PAC, chaired by Democratic political operative Steve Raby of Huntsville, gave $5,000 to Deserve Victory PAC on January 12, 2009, and on January 13, 2009, Deserve Victory PAC contributed $3,000 directly to Mr. Givhan’s campaign and gave $2,000 to TAG PAC. On January 15, 2009, TAG PAC contributed $2,000 to Mr. Givhan’s campaign.  FARM PAC, chaired by Alabama Farmers Federation Executive Director Mike Kilgore, gave Mr. Givhan $13,423.69.

In the case of Rep. Laura Hall (D-Huntsville), she received $28,000 from PACs.  According to Rep. Hall’s campaign disclosure forms, FGAPAC, BIPAC, and EDPAC, registered to lobbyists Joe Fine and Bob Geddie, gave Rep. Hall $7,500 while the Alabama Education Association (A-VOTE) gave Rep. Hall $10,000.  STA PAC, who also gave to Mr. Givhan, gave Rep. Hall $2,000.  Other PACs donating to Rep. Hall include JPAC ($2,500), SEA PAC ($2,500), TRIAL ($2,500) and SIXPAC ($1,000).

Paul Sanford, a member of the Alabama Retail Association since 2002, discloses that he received a check in the amount of $1,000 from the Association’s political action committee, which is his sole PAC contribution to date.

Mr. Sanford has made ethics reform and transparency the cornerstones of his campaign for the Senate. “When Governor Riley spoke to the Rotary Club here Tuesday, he asked people to call their legislators to demand ethics reform, including transparency in political contributions,” said Mr. Sanford. “I ask Sam Givhan and Laura Hall to be forthcoming in letting the voters know who is funding these PACs that are heavily funding their campaigns,” he added.

“If we are going to achieve ethical reform and transparency in State government, our Senate campaigns should exemplify transparent and ethical behavior.  It is time to end the maze of paperwork involved in tracing PAC to PAC transfers of money and lift the fog of special interest influence covering the District 7 race,” Sanford said.

Kal Barber Joins Givhan Campaign

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From the Sam Givhan campaign:

Huntsville, AL – Today, State Senate District 7 Republican candidate Sam Givhan announced that Kal Barber has joined the campaign as Campaign Manager.

 

“I am excited about Kal joining us as campaign manager. He was a great asset to Roger Richardson and his knowledge of Huntsville coupled with his hard work in grassroots will be invaluable,” said Givhan.

Kal Barber worked recently as Roger Richardson’s campaign manager during the primary election. Kal has been active in Republican politics since his childhood, and has worked as a volunteer on several campaigns including both of Governor Bob Riley’s campaigns. He is a local business owner, a husband and father of five daughters.

“I have been fortunate to have worked on several campaigns in the past and can use what I have learned over the years to enhance Sam Givhan’s campaign”, Barber said. “I am excited about working with Sam, Campaign Chairman Stan McDonald and the rest of the campaign team. I feel that Sam Givhan has a good plan in place for the district. I hope to bring a fresh prospective that ultimately increases his base of support.”

“We will have a spirited campaign to win the Republican nomination during the next month and Kal Barber is the final piece our team needed,” Givhan concluded.

Givhan is running for State Senate District 7. The Republican Run-off will be held on April 21, 2009.

Sam Givhan on WVNN This Morning

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WVNN – I listened to Dale Jackson’s very first interview (overdue) with Republican State Senate 7 candidate Sam Givhan this morning at 7:30AM.

Dale came out swinging, asking Givhan if he was a RINO, based on his history of contributions to Democrats. Givhan answered fully and creditably, explaining how the partnership at his law firm decided how to contribute money to campaigns.

Givhan asserted that he really did make one contribution to a Democrat – to  County Commissioner Bob Harrison in the hopes of unseating Rep. Laura Hall.

Givhan also noted his life-long ties to the GOP, from his parents, on through college, to working on and contributing to GOP campaigns.  Givhan noted his efforts for Stan McDonald’s races – McDonald is returning the favors by managing Givhan’s campaign.

Jackson was able to ask about one issue in the time available – immigration.  Givhan said it was a Federal problem, and seemed non-committal about State solutions.

Overall, it was a good interview, and I think that Givhan soundly rebutted some of the early concerns about him. However, his answer to the immigration question was unsatisfactory – mostly because I couldn’t really tell what views he holds on the subject.  Givhan needed to go on Jackson’s show, and I hope he makes time to do it again. 

Now he needs to go on Will Anderson’s show at WBHP.