I see that Brian is working on a post, so I’m going to see if I come up with something different. Thanks to Channel 19 for providing the best election coverage on TV.
‘Unofficial’ Results from the Madison County Probate Judge’s Office (cool web site):
“These are accurate numbers but considered unofficial results until Madison County Probate Judge certifies the election. As of 02/2008 there are 189,096 Madison County registered voters.”
UNOFFICIAL SUMMARY REPORT PRIMARY ELECTION REPORT-EL45 PAGE 001
JUNE 3, 2008
RUN DATE:06/03/08 09:55 PM STATISTICS
PRECINCTS COUNTED (OF 106). . . . . 105 99.06
BALLOTS CAST – TOTAL. . . . . . . 37,044
BALLOTS CAST – DEMOCRATIC . . . . . 12,362 33.37
BALLOTS CAST – REPUBLICAN . . . . . 24,526 66.21
BALLOTS CAST – NONPARTISAN. . . . . 156 .42
Madison County Voter Turnout was ‘Light’ at almost 20% (which IMO is fairly heavy for a primary without a Presidential race). The GOP races drove turnout, with 66% of voters voting in the Republican Primary.
There will be a GOP Primary Run-off on July 15 (voter registration cut-off July 4) for Madison County Tax Collector (Stafford v Brown), PSC Chair (Cavanaugh v Chancey), and Criminal Appeals Court Place 1 (Kellum v McLemore), and AL-05 Congress (Parker v Baswell-Guthrie). There aren’t any Democratic run-offs from the Madison County ballot. IIRC primary run-off turnout is about 2/3 of the primary turnout (couldn’t tell you where that came from, but if it is correct, I’ll credit Dr. Jess Brown).
Using a mix of Madison County and Channel 19 numbers: Madison County GOP voters in AL-05 total 24,075 (63%) out of 37,934 District-wide votes cast. Madison County Democrat voters total 12,154 (32%) out of 38,415 District-wide votes cast. That’s about 50 / 50 GOP / Dem – which looks promising for the GOP for the General Election.
I see Brian thinks that the GOP chances for AL-05 are “bleak”, compared to my “promising”.
AL-05 consists of Colbert (Dem), Lauderdale (Dem), Lawrence (Dem), Limestone (Dem), Madison, and Jackson Counties (Dem), with a little bit of Morgan County (GOP). I’ve noted my impression of how each County votes (subject to further study and real number crunching). My thinking is that except for Madison County, the Dems turned out for the races in the other Counties. I don’t think Madison County Dems turned out in full force for the primary, but they turned out in pretty big numbers for Griffith. However, Madison County usually votes GOP for the President – if that holds, then there is a chance of winning the AL-05.
Parker Griffith was on Pamela Furr’s show (WVNN) today and from what I heard I don’t disagree with anything he said (he sounded like a Republican on the issues they discussed). His weak point is that Barack Obama is at the top of his ticket, but Wayne Parker isn’t running (and IMO shouldn’t run) against Obama; voters can figure that out on their own.
Yes, I think Wayne Parker will win the run-off: he almost won outright. I hope that the run-off doesn’t damage Parker (but it will sap resources he could be spending against Griffith). IMO Cheryl Baswell-Guthrie should concede, but if she doesn’t I hope that she will remember Reagan’s 11th Commandment.