Can Parker Griffith win the GOP Primary?
Representative Parker Griffith’s switch to the GOP has been the topic of discussion here in Huntsville for… hours, now.
I saw Griffith on Hannity tonight, hosted by Mark Steyn. Griffith performed well, calling out Democrats as “far-left extremists” and saying that he had no idea that the national Democratic Party was filled with leftists (if only he read Flashpoint). Griffith said that the Democrats were weak on Defense and NASA – he must only read The Huntsville Times not to have known that before the election. Griffith mentioned that he is “pro-life” and “pro-Second Amendment”. Griffith also said that there was no place in the Democratic Party for moderates or conservatives and that he expected more Blue Dogs to switch. Griffith described himself as “an independent conservative”.
Griffith’s switch is a big coup for the national GOP, signalling to conservative and moderate Democrats that their party has been taken over by leftists and that there is no room for them in the Democratic Party.
But can Griffith win the GOP Primary?
Griffith has FIVE MONTHS to win over GOP Primary voters, many of whom remember the Huntsville Hospital “unwarranted pain and suffering” documents – which implied that Griffith was a monster. Griffith either plans to ignore those voters or somehow mitigate the damage caused by last year’s campaign.
Griffith must somehow make peace with Dale Jackson of WVNN, who is engaged in a death match against him. Facing Dale on his radio show could mitigate this issue, since IIRC the death match began because Griffith didn’t carry out his promise to appear. Jackson doesn’t reach all of AL05, but I think he’s influential in Huntsville.
IMO these two issues only reach Huntsville GOP primary voters.
Another mostly Huntsville factor is the Tea Party. My guess is that the Tea Party had some role in electing Senator Paul Sanford and Representative Phil Williams – so they’re on a roll. Christie Carden of the Tea Party said that she doesn’t consider Griffith to be a “constitutional conservative”, which is her biggest criteria for voting (she’ll vote for Griffith “when pigs fly”). Clearly Griffith has his work cut out there.
The biggest obstacles Griffith faces are Mo Brooks and Les Phillip. Both of these guys are solid conservatives, but each has a weakness: Mo may be too well-known (some people don’t like him) and Les is not well-known enough (he’s a rookie). However, Griffith has many times more campaign funds than both of them combined. There’s a good chance that Griffith will draw much more money due to the power of incumbency.
I don’t know if Griffith’s switch will encourage others to enter the getting-crowded race. Wayne Parker and Todd Slyman are still out there.
In real life, I spoke with some influential local ‘establishment’ Republicans today who said they are voting for Griffith.
‘Young GOP’ posted a comment at Doc’s Political Parlor that I think makes some good observations:
As far as the GOP side, it will be interesting to see if Griffith can convince enough Republicans that he is more than just a turncoat scoundrel, he will surely have the support of the NRCC and the DC GOP. He could, and a crowded primary helps his chances. He will win the outlying rural counties(Lauderdale, Jackson, Lawrence, and Colbert) handily, but the vast majority of the GOP primary vote comes from the urban and suburban areas of Madison, Morgan, and Limestone counties. The real question is whether he can convince enough Arsenal defense workers, Hampton Cove housewives, and young affluent Madison couples that he is the genuine article. If he wins the primary, he is in a very strong position for the general.
Mo Brooks is the current GOP frontrunner to challenge Griffith. He has the money and connections but is often seen as unlikeable and disagreeable, it remains to be seen if he can expand his power base outside South Huntsville. Les Phillip is very charismatic and has a great story but the GOP power brokers are holding back as of now to see if he has a chance, money is also a big struggle for him. I think Wayne should stay out of this one, his money base has already solidified around Brooks and I doubt the 4th time will be the charm. Guthrie does not need to even try. Slyman and Dr. Mancuso could be longshots, but no one really knows much about them. This will all be very interesting…
BTW Griffith didn’t respond to our AL05 Questionnaire back in May 2008 (we got a response from 5 of 7 candidates). It didn’t seem to hurt him back then, but it’s a new ballgame now.
Dale Jackson’s radio program reaches everyone worldwide who has a computer and chooses to” listens live” @ http://www.wvnn.com/.
I think the negative fallout from Griffith’s journey down “the road to Damascus” will outweigh any positive reaction and you can put a fork in his future political aspirations.
His war chest may be greatly diminished if many of those who contributed to him ask for their money to be returned and he keeps his word to return it to anyone who asks that it be returned.
How could a “conservative” contribute $1,500 to Howard Dean for president (as Griffith did)?
How could a “conservative” proudly vote to empower Speaker Nancy Pelosi (as Griffith did)?
How could a “conservative” proudly vote with Speaker Nancy Pelosi 85% of the time out of 991 votes (as Griffith did)?
Griffith is a 1 in 50 chance of winning the GOP primary (assuming the GOP allows him on the ballot). But if he wins the primary he loses the general election, because many, many conservative Republicans will join Christie Carden and vote for pigs that fly before they vote for Griffith in the general election.
The GOP Washington Crowd that has done so much damage to America simply will not be allowed by voters to extend that same damage to a 5th District GOP Primary.
Unfortunately, the people that this blog, the tea parties, and WVNN reach are already stalwart conservative voters. I’m sure that some minds are changed through those avenues, but I think this underestimates all the average people that don’t pay much attention to politics, but hold a scary majority in selecting our representatives. Griffith’s name recognition with those voters may be too much for other more conservative candidates to overcome. The primary is his largest hurdle, because primary voters are the well-informed WVNN, Flashpoint, tea-party crowd. However, don’t discount that many of those people may simply choose Griffith. In all, I hope Mo Brooks wins the primary and the general, but if he doesn’t then I think Griffith will win the general as long as he cares to put his name on the ballot (barring scandal).
“In all, I hope Mo Brooks wins the primary and the general, but if he doesn’t then I think Griffith will win the general as long as he cares to put his name on the ballot (barring scandal).”
Jeff, thanks for one of the few intelligent comments I have seen on this subject from those of us who are conservative but do not wish to pursue a scorched earth mentality on this subject. NOTHING-NOTHING-NOTHING is worse that giving this seat back to the Democrats and I have to believe that some of the stupid things I am reading will fade away if PG does win the primary (which I hope is not another mud fest that leave all candidates so tarnished that we hand this seat back to the Democrats) .
Wake up people!
Do not count out Les Phillip he has more support than the “establishment” wants to give him credit for, & his is grassroots not party hacks.
One thought to add to this good analysis.
Remember that Alabama does not have party registration and has open primaries. Because of this, one of the main issues of voters in the June primary is local races–sheriffs, DA’s, etc. Most of the counties (Jackson, Lauderdale, Colbert) in North Alabama still have Democrats in these positions, and the races for these positions are in the Democratic primary. As a result, the voters in these counties will vote in the Democratic primary, minimizing the number of voters in the Republican primary
A quick glance at the numbers: In the 06 primary, Jackson Cty had 9900 Dem votes compared to 1515 GOP; in 08 (June) they had 7500 Dem compared to 524 GOP. Lawrence is similar–in 06 they had 7800 Dem to 1346 GOP. Lauderdale is a bit closer, but still has about twice as many Democratic primary voters. In contrast, Limestone is about even between Dem and GOP voters, and Madison has twice as many GOP primary voters (and a Republican sheriff.)
What does this mean for the District 5 GOP primary? The strongest concentration of voters are in Madison and Limestone counties–in the other counties, most of the voters are going to vote in the Democratic primary. Griffith has to win them over to be able to win the primary-a tall challenge.
If there happens to be a runoff, then who knows–if I remember correclty, the GOP still does not prohibit crossovers votes.
With Davis and Sparks in the race for governor will also tend to keep Democrats voting in their own primary.
Does this mean Griffith will now be willing to go on Dale’s show? I somehow doubt it.
What idiot would? It would be a hatchet job, you read the stuff Dale says? I listen to Dale and obviously agree with him on most things but his screaming negative stance on Parker Griffith borders on maniacal obsession. I am NOT Parker Griffith’s biggest fan BUT I know he is the BEST choice to keep the seat away from the Democrats.
I could care less about the D/R breakdown here. Griffith is an unethical politician looing out for his own self interest. It’s not “Parker Griffith-R” or “Parker Griffith-D” it’s “Parker Griffith-Parker Griffith”… he only represents himself.
Say what you will about my “death match” or “maniacal obsession”, I nailed this guy 2 years ago and his recent actions just further prove my already proven point.
The GOP made a deal with the devil to make the Democratic Party look weak, nationally this was a huge sucess. But locally this is NY-23.
Voters like you are THE PROBLEM! Keep electing the same POS and expecting something that doesn’t smell like manure and see how that works for ya. As was previously stated, I’ll vote for PG “when pigs fly.”
I wouldn’t bet on it.
William, you make excellent points about the concentration of GOP primary voters in Madison and Limestone Counties. This will be a weakness for PG who drew much of his support from those outlying counties. This is the same point I was trying to make; In order for PG to win the primary he HAS to win Madison County and to do that he has a huge uphill climb.
For me personally, I could not vote for PG even if he were the GOP nominee. I would even rather have a true liberal democrat that will stick to his/her convictions than someone who IMO has zero integrity. For me, nothing has changed a about Griffith besides the R after his name. He is still the unethical, spineless, liberal that says one thing in DC and Montgomery and then tries to play the “conservative independent” card back home. Shoot me straight or don’t shoot me at all. I have no respect for someone like that.
I have met both Les and Mo in person and I believe both to be excellent individuals dedicated to conservative values and the 5th district. I am currently leaning towards Les but have not made up my mind. But, I am sure that Mo, Les, or Wayne will be a better Congressman than PG ever was simply because they are running to represent the district and not to further their own political career at the voter’s expense.
I can’t imagine voters who voted against Griffith last year voting for him in the primary. I won’t vote for him in the general but some will if he gets that far.
What will be funny is watching the national GOP funnel money to a guy who they tried to destroy a year ago.
“For me personally, I could not vote for PG even if he were the GOP nominee. I would even rather have a true liberal democrat”
WTF??? I suggest you don’t really give a damn about this country if you really believe that crap. You would rather have one more in the Pelosi camp than Parker Griffith because he is “unethical”???? Throw a rock at ANYONE in Congress and you will hit someone “unethical”, all I care about is this —– DO THEY VOTE THE WAY I WANT THEM TO??. Anything else you add is worthless fluff because at the end of the day I want to see his voting record reflect my views. You think that “true liberal democrat” you would rather have is going to support your views? Damn I can see we are going to hand this seat right back to the Democrats because people can’t figure out what the REAL battle is about. While you are at it change your handle since you obviously will change your support depending on which way the wind blows ….. hmmm, kinda like what you accuse PG of doing huh?
WTF to you to Douglas Meeks…
Here you say…
“While you are at it change your handle since you obviously will change your support depending on which way the wind blows ….. hmmm, kinda like what you accuse PG of doing huh?”
What?
You support Griffith because he has an R, he’s the same guy right? His D record is the same as his R record, but the R is ok?
So WTF indeed.
But earlier you say this… http://www.flashpointblog.com/2009/12/22/memo-to-the-huntsville-times-check-your-facts/#comment-95004
“It is indeed a cult mentality when you don’t care about the issues nor any facts about the candidate. You will vote for him regardless and thats what happened, after calling white people racist all these years the black community voted skin color and could have cared less about his platform. He was black and thats all that mattered, cult mentality………”
Republican Pot, meet Kettle.
Well rather than keep this going I might suggest improve your reading skills. I DO CARE how he VOTES after I elect him, the comment above was concerning people who would vote for Obama regardless of how he voted as made clear in my Harlem interview reference. Some were told he was Pro abortion and some anti abortion, all supported him. MANY were told he choose Sarah Palin as his running mate and they STILL supported him (informed electorate huh). So yes I do care how he votes but would NEVER say I would support a liberal democrat over him due to my own personal dislikes and ego. I don’t change my support for the end game which is to make sure I do not put another Obama Democrat in my 5th District seat, my readings seem to indicate you and the “young Republican” do not share that particular obsession with me when it comes to PG. Obama is trying to destroy my country, sorry if I do not share you folks thoughts that PG is at that same level of disdain.
Sorry folks, getting to the “Wrestling with pigs” part again and it IS Christmas Day so I will try to let this go until there is an actual primary campaign underway.
One small thing, I might have to eat my own words if they managed to get Bud Cramer to run again (I would think it would have to be at gunpoint). That would make things really hard for me because Bud was pretty independent and I can’t see him doing lockstep with Pelosi. Figure almost no chance of it but don’t want to have to have my words served back to me a few months from now in that case :) And Merry Christmas to you too …
But PG is voting with Pelosi……he is an Obama Democrat, even with the (R)
Wrestling with pigs? Sorry to drag your pretty mind into the muck… schmuck?
CAUTION, SLIGHTLY OFF TOPIC: Thought maybe I should clear something up here. The old adage is “Don’t wrestle with pigs because you both get dirty and the pig likes it”. When I use that it is NOT meant as an insult at whomever I am debating, it simply means we have reached the stage in the debate where I think we are arguing for the sake of argument and nobody is going to change anybody’s opinion. Perhaps I should adopt a better saying:) Some folks enjoy the fighting and name calling, I do not as a rule (although I am sure you can find many instances where this one was broken). Once I have said all I think I have to say I tend to just drop it unless I think of something new to add. I will work on using a more appropriate line of disengagement . Now I return you back to your regularly scheduled war of words.
Les fatally wounded himself with the Huckabee fundraiser. A few weeks ago Huckabee helped Freed Hardeman University bring in a record 1.3 million at a fundraiser over in Henderson, Tn. So how in the world did Les end up in the red after Huckabee left? That makes Les look like an amateur. Then there’s Mo…..he deserves credit for posting on here and its worth noting he did very well in the 5th in ‘06 during his failed Lt Gov run. But he still comes across to a lot of people as being too extreme so it remains to be seen with him. The last dem to switch was Congressman Rodney Alexander and he did it at the filing deadline and here we are 5 yrs later and he’s still in Congress. So PG can pull this off. He should continue to build on his relationships with the business community, reach out to the conservative bloggers like Brian and the rest in the 5th, go on Dale’s show and take the heat, meet the local GOP officials one on one….small things like that. Its naive to write a well funded incumbent like PG off this early. Also keep in mind, if it wasnt for people of all ilks like PG switching, the GOP here in the south would still be having their county meetings in phone booths in remote places like Waterloo.
Dan:
This comment is not directed specifically at your remarks.
Many of my detractors will call me different names or attribute to me any number of flaws (and I have some, I know I”m far from perfect). “Far right-wing kook” is a common moniker given to me by those who have given up on debating me squarely on the policy beliefs I advocate.
In my five contested general elections, I’ve led the Republican ticket four of those times (the fifth time, I was 1-2% below the ticket-leading presidential candidate).
For clarity, the above is a same box versus same box comparison.
The reason I mention the foregoing is that, for whatever reason, voters of many different persuasions (moderate and conservative, even a few liberals) have historically voted for my candidacies moreso than for any other Republican on the ballot.
Might I suggest that I am a conservative who is blessed with an ability to communicate to voters that our views are best for our community, state and nation and, hence, voters you would think might not vote for me . . . do.
Just food for thought.
Mo
Mo, just a quick thing. You probably would never know it from my posts but I still count myself as one of your supporters, my points in all this verbiage can be boiled down as follows:
1. NOTHING trumps winning the general election for the Republicans (or that outside shot Independent)
2. Try to make sure we don’t burn our own party to the ground in the primary.
3. Support whatever candidate has the best chance to win over any Democratic candidate.
4. In trying to achieve the first 3 I cannot join in mud slinging Parker Griffith if he has the best chance, if the election was help today I think he would be the strongest Republican candidate, 10 months from now that could all change.
I may have poorly made my case, but I refuse to eliminate ANYONE at this stage of the game that can keep that seat from the Democrats. I think to do so this early would be stupid. Remarks like “I will vote for a liberal Democrat before Parker Griffith” do nothing to help the real battle in Washington.
Hopefully I have now covered all the ground I care to cover before we have a real primary underway.
dcm
I love it when I’m referred to as a “right wing nut” and other similar comments. My proud response is, “Yep, I’m as far right as you can go. Look over there and you’ll see me standing right next to the Constitution. If it’s not SPECIFICALLY written in the Constitution, the federal gubment has no business getting involved – PERIOD.”
Doug:
Understood.
There are a lot of conflicting emotions and strategies out there. Everyone has to decide for himself what is best.
It is much like our options in many elections.
We can try the “lesser of two ‘not what we want’ approach” (stop hard turn to the left by going with a slow but sure turn to the left – reaching the same dead end only taking longer to get there).
Or we can try for a reversal: insisting on electing candidates who will try to reverse America’s course in order to get her back on track.
I prefer the latter approach.
While I strongly disagree with Obama’s policies, the one good thing about him is that Obama’s policies are so bad that even the “I don’t pay much attention” voter is able to grasp the danger behind his policies. In contrast, if we had elected John McCain, we’d be in better short term shape . . . but we still would be going down the same dead-end path, only at a rate too slow for the general public to figure out the cause of America’s likely gradual decline.
For example, budget deficits are bad no matter who sponsors them. But, with Obama, the deficits are so much worse ($1.4 trillion versus $300-500 billion under Bush) that public edification of the danger is correspondingly magnified.
As a footnote, I submit Griffith is our weakest general election candidate (for a number of reasons). For starters:
First, I submit there are a LOT of conservatives who will not vote for Griffith no matter what in a general election. These voters will only vote for candidates who are principled, trustworthy . . . and adherents to foundational principles . . . and there are a lot more of these voters than their used to be. Witness how badly we lost in 2006 & 2008 because we had candidates who were milquetoast when we needed candidates who had an ideology and were leaders (ala Reagan).
Second, the Democrats will be “extra” motivated to defeat Griffith if he is our nominee. “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned” comes to mind. If Griffith is the nominee, the national Dems will try to make an example of him and go out of their way to defeat him (to ensure there are no more defectors). There is no limit to the money they will spend to defeat the “traitor”. If I am our nominee, they will treat me like any other district they want to win.
Third, if Griffith is our nominee, we hand the Democrats a huge weapon/argument. The Dems will be able to make a laughingstock of Griffith simply by playing back the NRCC’s attack ads from 2008. If you don’t remember how bad they were, for starters, go to the Attack Machine web site for a refresher.
The question is one of whether Republicans are hypocrites or persons of principle. We cannot argue that a candidate is not trustworthy and rotten with a “D” beside their names but smelling like a rose solely because he has an “R” beside his name. We lose the public (and rightfully so) when politics is so crudely played.
As for me, I see Griffith finishing last in our primary. I give him about a 1 in 50 chance of winning. His judge and jury in a GOP Primary is a voting pool that rejected him close to 100% last year.
There simply is no amount of money and money that can make an Edsel or Yugo something other than an Edsel or Yugo. The public won’t buy it.
And, for clarity, I’m not talking about Griffith’s personal life at all. I’m talking about his public voting record (in Montgomery and Washington). And I’m talking about his four-figure contributions to Harry Reid, Howard Dean, etc., etc.
Mo
” Democrats will be “extra” motivated to defeat Griffith if he is our nominee. “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned””
No debate on that one.
“simply by playing back the NRCC’s attack ads from 2008″
Politics 101. If he is not prepared for that one then he will never make it through the primary, I think folks already made their decisions on the truthfulness of that and while they may be embarrassing I am not sure how damaging they will be.
While I am going to support the nominee I do worry that we will do ourselves so much harm in the primary that we give the general election back to the Democrats. I hope not but I see a lot of scorched earth mentality already and you bet I am concerned.
Who I pull the lever for in the booth is not etched in granite but it WILL be who I believe can perform best in the general election.
dcm
Commissioner, I have to say that I agree with alamot everything you said in your post. The bad thing about the “lesser of two evils” approach is that you inevitably end up with evil. I have stated that I am leaning toward Les in the primary but still have an open mind. And Comissioner Brooks, I have to admit you are slowly winning me over not only with your courage to post your thoughts in such an open forum but with the excellent points you make everytime. Keep it up Mo! I look forward to a great primary campaign and ultimately a win for conservatives, District 5, and most importantly The Constitution in November
Young GOP:
Thanks for your kind remarks. While I wish I still had the “vigor of youth” (I miss actively playing basketball, tennis, baseball, soccer and the like), I very much enjoy having the wisdom 27 years of active politics has given me. It makes it much easier to see through the political fog and obfuscation . . . because I’ve seen it so many times before.
Mo
PG is welcome to the nomination if he can win it, I very much doubt he can. I think the competition will be a good thing. It will be hard for his Democrat opponents to campaign as Blue dogs like PG did last year. MB and LP will have an easy time of contrasting themselves with PG.
Reactionary,
You stated the some in GOP establishment are voting for Griffith? I understand the hold your nose and vote for the R in the general (I won’t do it), but I can’t fathom a situation of Griffith over Mo/Les.
Someone/anyone explain that to me.
Explain to me how PG is “not comfortable” with the dems because they are “too left wing” but is comfortable with folks that called him a MURDERER??? And the GOP wants to elect a murderer (their words, not mine) to office??? Is he not a murderer now? I mean WTF?
I don’t know that he is a “murderer,” but I know from first hand accounts of his dealings in Monkey Town that he is unequivocally a POS. Add to that his vote for Pelosi and supporting her when she needed the votes, then switching parties when it ain’t lookin’ too good for the ol’ DNC, and it adds up to NEVER, EVER, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE VOTE FOR PARKER GRIFFITH!
To add my two cents – yes, PG can win the primary. Will he? I hope not, but he has enough money to make a splash, he is the incumbent and he received 51% of the vote (about 9% higher than Obama) in Madison County – so he did sway some “republican” voters. He ran as an independent moderate (not saying he is one, but that’s how he portrayed himself) during the last campaign. He will have to change that voting percentage to 90+ percent with the republicans, give sizable contributions to republican candidates and continue to highlight his votes that make him seem more conservative.
I personally hope Mo Brooks wins the primary and the general – would provide a Congressman I could be proud to have in Washington.
Reactionary – I think you give the tea party too much credit for Paul and Phil. They may have had some crossover appeal, but I would posit their wins did more to help the tea party than the tea party did to help them win.
Dale, if you really want Mr. Brooks to win, then stop supprting and associating with him.
It didn’t seem to hurt Paul or Phil. Let’s be honest – Dale can be abrasive (it’s his job) – but he is listened to by many and (think him a jerk or not) is influential in that he provides many people with their best (easiest) source of information on the candidates (particularly in the primary).
with at least 2 conservatives in the race, we Republicans (i.e., those that are constitutional, fiscal and for the most part social conservatives) will likely get McCained w/ the RINO getting through. I am sure the Democrat party will much rather have a weak RINO than a strong conservative.
Did anyone make the point that North Huntsville will not be out in strength because Obama is not on the ticket? PG was able to count on a tremendous showing from North Huntsville during his first campaign. He was not going to get this 95%+ bloc in round two. This may have factored into his “switch” decision. I was also informed some 5 months ago that local Dems were scouting for potential Dem primary candidates to run against PG.
For Griffith to win this primary 51% of the people who voted against, him last year even with all his “conservative” crap, will have to decide that he is a better candidate than both Mo Brooks and Les Phillip. I just can’t see that happening no matter what deal the NRCC, ALGOP and local GOP hacks made to protect help him.
Despite Mo Brooks attends a Morman Church, he is still a leading viable candidate. As polls on WVNN and elsewhere reflect, Mo Brooks is the leading candidate, and most likely to do well in the Republican Primary. As has been discussed by Dale Jackson, campaign supporters of Les Phillips have questions concerning is Mo Brooks born again, and point to the fact Mo goes to a Morman Church. A simple fact remains that Les Phillip belongs to a ethic group (Blacks) that have great difficulty getting elected in the South. Les Phillip appears to be behind and has a lot of ground to make up.
Nick, what does Mo Brooks belonging to the “Mormon Church” have to with anything? There is no such thing as the “mormon church” anyway. Is being a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints a disqualified for office? If Les Phillips is making Mr. Brooks’ religious affiliation an issue, especially the Christian LDS church, he’s lost my support.