AL-05 rumors and speculation
Some early action and rumors for the AL-05 race next year…
Parker Griffith (D) is a freshman legislator and the conventional wisdom is that he will be at his most vulnerable next year. With Democrats controlling the Executive and Legislative branches of the federal government spending (and debt) has shot through the roof. A pronounced push for increased taxes will almost certainly be soon to follow. Obama wants health care “reforms” that, while not only costly, will threaten our private health care system in the long run. I’ve heard that cuts to missile defense programs have already materialized as lay offs in Huntsville. None of that plays very well in the Tennessee Valley. Up to now, Griffith has generally cast votes that are not terribly objectionable. He has taken a page out of the Bud Cramer playbook. Potential adversaries will likely spend more time attacking the national party and tying Griffith to them as an enabler who is unable or unwilling to stand up to them. I expect to hear GOP ads mention Nancy Pelosi’s name more than Griffith’s.
So who is and might be running against Griffith?
Les Phillip announced his intention to run in the Republican primary early and I’ve heard that the fundraising has been going well. He has managed to line up Mike Huckabee’s support early, which strikes me as quite a coup considering the former Arkansas governor was the leading vote getter in the 2008 Republican Presidential Preference Primary in Alabama (he also won every county that comprises the 5th district). Huckabee is headlining a fundraiser for Phillip this Tuesday in Huntsville. I believe tickets are still available.
Phillip will not be alone and will face a stiff challenge in the GOP primary from Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks. I’ve been told that Brooks plans on formally filing his papers on July 2nd. Brooks has a long political background and is a (the?) conservative stalwart in the Tennessee Valley. While he only won 15% of the vote in the statewide Lt. Gov. primary in 2006 he did lead the field in both Madison and Limestone Counties. Brooks won’t have to spend much time or money telling voters who he is, but his big challenge may be convincing voters that he is the best candidate for the general election as his unabashed, and occasionally incendiary, conservative views may not attract many cross over voters.
In the say it ain’t so category, I’ve heard from a few people that Cheryl Baswell Guthrie is contemplating another run. Words cannot adequately describe my thoughts on that.
While it doesn’t necessarily mean too much, I haven’t talked to anyone who could tell me that Wayne Parker is not going to take his fourth shot at the AL-05 seat. Maybe I just haven’t asked the right people yet. I’m a firm believer in voter fatigue over candidates who can’t seem to win and I don’t see how Parker could find the same success in a primary as he enjoyed in 2008 – the competition quite simply will be stouter this time and voters have already seen him fall to Griffith.
I could be proven wrong, but I don’t see a huge primary field for the Republicans like we’ve seen in many North Alabama races recently. A pair of already announced, strong candidates might just scare away any other challengers, which would be a welcome change as primary runoffs have siphoned off precious funds and left visible bruises.
One thing I’m waiting to see is if an upstart left wing candidate emerges to challenge Griffith. I don’t run in such circles (I have a job after all) so this is just empty speculation. I have seen that many “progressive” types on the internet are none too pleased with Griffith’s voting record, but at the end of the day they represent an insignificant portion of the district and I don’t see them fielding a serious challenger, but you never know. Remember Ned Lamont in Conneticut? That worked out real well for them.
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Brian have you heard any rumors that either Jeff Sikes or Sen. Arthur Orr may make a run for the seat? I have heard both names bantered around with the more serious speculation being directed toward Orr. As far as left wing challengers to Griffith, I think ‘08 candidate David Maker may have a shot, just kidding.
Oh and Wayne Parker will absolutely not run. Party leaders tried to talk him into running for the open SD-7 seat and he flatly turned them down. It is my impression that he and his family have no desire to put themselves through another long, expensive, emotionally draining campaign.
Cheryl Baswell Guthrie? Awesome! There’s been a shortage of monkey commercials in North Alabama lately!
Seriously, I’d be very excited with either Mo Brooks or Les Phillip on the ticket. I’m in Mo Brooks’ corner right now, because he is a PROVEN conservative.
Glad to hear Wayne isn’t running. He is a genuinely good person, but this particular seat has proven elusive for him. If he and his family want to suffer through another campaign (not sure why anyone does that!) then he may want to pick a different target.
Unless he’s moved I don’t think Orr lives in the district boundaries. Nothing in the Constitution prevents him from running, but out of district candidates are a hard sell. I think very highly of Orr and I’d hate to see him abandon his AL Senate seat to enter a race without being the clear heavyweight.
Haven’t heard about Jeff Sikes this time, but his name was mentioned a fair amount in the previous AL-05 race.
I was planning to vote for Phillip, but now that Brooks is in the race, I’ll back him all the way. In addition to Brooks’ track record and deep local political connections, I am bothered by Phillip’s support of a “guest worker” program.
Let’s hope a far-lefty does not challenge Griffith. This will only allow Griffith to cruise to an easy primary victory while using his hippy-dippy opponent as a foil against which to define himself as a paragon of conservatism.
I am with Les all the way!! Anyone with a long poltical history and “deep local political connections” is an automatic turn off for me. Why do you think the TEA parties started in the first place? It is going to be a great race for our district.
Melissa – before you let having a political track record and connections be an automatic turn off, you might want to examine Mo’s track record. Don’t forget he spoke at the first Tea Party in Huntsville (and was probably the best speaker).
Melissa — Brooks is the kind of solid conservative that would have saved the GOP from itself if there had been more like him in Congress and fewer power-hungry squishes.
I watched some of Les’ speeches on YouTube and came away with a favorable first impression. However, if Mo officially announces he is running he has my support now.
Im not on Les Phillip’s payroll but there are 2 things that bother me about Brooks. The first is kind of trivial but still important when you think about it. Him and Jan Cook left their campaign signs up all over the state in ‘07 and ‘08. That to me shows a lack of respect for the state. It was very bad driving down highway 72 from Huntsville to the Mississippi stateline. If conservatives like Wallace Jr to libs like Ron Sparks can remove their signs in late ‘06 then why in the world didnt Brooks remove his? The second thing is this. He played to the fringe immigration element in his ‘06 campaign. For example, he was a frequent guest on the Russ and Dee Fine show in Birmingham and we all know what happened to that magnificient duo. If you nominate people who play to the folks who want “illegals held in camps” or the state troopers, abi and national guard to go in at gun point and drag out jose and his “sweetie pie” juanita and ship them back to Mexico. Then your going to lose each and everytime at the ballot box.
Both Les Phillip and Mo Brooks are great candidates. I have had a chance to talk to Les on multiple occasions and he is an outstanding person. That said, I have a great deal of respect for Mo Brooks as well. Either one would be a good candidate, and both would be a great representative for North Alabama.
It is going to be a tough decision.
Young GOP, I’m not sure where you got your information but I’m pretty sure it’s not accurate right now.
Junkie – what’s not accurate – Sikes, Orr or Parker?
Sorry! I’m going to make it a personal rule not to comment from my Blackberry anymore (unless urgent) since I don’t type enough to be clear.
That was in reference to Wayne.
I do think Sikes is very much in the mix, Orr not so much. Orr is very valuable where he is right now (just got the ethics bill passed FINALLY) and he would have to not only give up that seat but move districts.
Junkie – just type more from your Blackberry, that would work too. Or get an iPhone, I hear those read your brain waves to write messages (and cure cancer too).
Really, Wayne is considering another run?
Yeah from what I hear he’s considering it.
Hmm, perhaps I shall just fight to overcome the impulse to do things quickly but poorly that seems to grip our entire country when on the Blackberry.
Mo Brooks has proven over and over since I first met him in 1982 that he is a true small government conservative. Mo all the way !!!!!
This may have been addressed before, but for Huntsville and for our nation, Missle Defense is a major issue. No matter his intentions, Parker Griffith has been ineffective at stoping cuts in missle defense systems. It’s hard to argue that a congressman can effectively oppose his own parties priorties in Washington.
Here is a link (I hope it posts properly):
Democrats Cut Missle Defense
Missle Cuts Still Stand
All:
Thanks for the constructive comments. I fly tomorrow to D.C. to meet with the National Republican Congressional Committee, various congressmen, and various conservative political groups.
If I receive the expected encouragement from the NRCC and the others I am meeting with in Washington, appropriate Federal Election Commission paperwork will be filed before I address three Tea Parties on Friday and Saturday (July 3-4).
Oh, and a short message to “Dan T”. Please continue to emphasize to everyone you meet that I will do everything I can legally do as a public official to fight the illegal alien epidemic.
I respectfully disagree that elected officials should continue to look the other way as American citizens and taxpayers are gouged by illegal aliens who consume costly education, health care, aid to families with dependent children (”anchor babies”) and every other federal wealth transfer program they can tap into.
As a County Commissioner, I’d much rather see $1+ million in tax dollars a year spent on government services and roads for Madison County citizens rather than continuing to spend that $1+ million each year to house the roughly 60+ illegal aliens a day who are in the Madison County jail because of crimes they have committed against American citizens.
In any event, if America had unlimited funds, that would be one thing. But America does not have unlimited funds. Tax dollars used to “lure” illegal aliens to America could be much better spent on national defense, NASA, roads and any number of other programs that better serve American citizens.
When roughly 46 cents of every budgeted federal dollar is borrowed money, America must face the economic fact that largesse for everyone is impossible . . . and appropriate priorities must be set and spending habits altered accordingly . . . before America’s economy is devastated by the havoc wrought when the day comes that there is no more money to borrow, thus forcing America to suddenly have to cancel 46% of all federal spending . . . all at once.
That scenario is an inevitable nightmare unless leaders with backbone are elected to serve in Washington.
No offense to “Mr. T”, but subsidizing illegal aliens is at the very bottom of my priority list.
Sincerely,
Mo Brooks
Madison County Commissioner
Wayne Parker’s trying to sell his house w/o a realtor for 2nd time…perhaps this does mean something?
Mo has my full support. Experience does count and longtime community connections are very important! I have someone he needs to talk to…
Expect RIF’s on contractors supporting Missile Defense locally. Could be between 300-500 depending upon whether H/W, flight tests, or employees are shaved. Ares/Constellation may absorb some of the loss. BRAC is too slow and the government hiring process is like molasses in winter…expect Huntspatch to take a loss while the rest of the country might be heading up. Advise: Be flexible about job opportunities. You might be working for Obama the way the Fed’s are hiring. Ironic – the typical Flashpoint blogger being hired by Obama:-)
It may have not have mattered whether we had a Republican congressman/woman. Elections have consequences. Expect the local economic impact to be similar to when Clinton cut National Missile Defense and the Adv Solid Rocket Booster program back in ‘93-’94. Obama plus Dem Congress plus Gates = loss of HSV Federal dollars. Griffith has had tremendous support from aerospace/DOD companies while trying to salvage the local federal dollars. These same firms gave money to both Parker and Griffith…hedging their bets so to speak:-)