AL Gov 2010: Race voting
Interesting poll in the Democrats’ race for governor in 2010 (courtesy of Left in Alabama):
The dynamics of this race absolutely fascinate me. Just going by name recognition and current elected office stature I would give Artur Davis the edge in the Democrat race. He is strong enough to win in the general election, but the Democrat establishment not only isn’t rallying behind him, they seem hell bent on preventing him from winning the nomination. They’re seriously considering abandoning their only spot in the entire appellate court system just to try to knock him off. Why is that?
Conventional wisdom is that many Democrats fear having a black man at the top of the ticket in Alabama. I believe the person and the policies have more weight than skin color (even in Alabama), but it is a plausible fear. It has been suggested that Davis is an outsider who does not kneel at the alter of Paul Hubbert and would therefore be threatening to entrenched entities. Also believable.
Personally, I think the poll above shows why the Democrats should want Davis atop their ticket and why Republicans should not. Clearly black people – I should say black Democrats – are willing to vote for Davis because of his skin color. In both polls Davis was matched up against statewide office holders with pretty decent name ID and credentials. One would suspect this early in the campaign for the poll results to be rather even. That holds true for the caucasians who were polled, but how does one explain the huge disparity in minority votes? Davis went from -4% among whites to +68% among blacks against Ron Sparks (a 72 point shift) and from -1% to +63% versus Sue Bell Cobb (a 64 point shift). The simple fact is that black folks are going to vote for Davis because he is black. Quite sad to vote for or against someone because of their race, which has about as much bearing on their capacity to govern as does their hair color (no, that is not intended to be a blond joke!), but that appears to be the way it is.
The Democrats are playing with fire here. Sure, blacks are a loyal voting bloc for them. But the Democrats need them to show up at the polls. What would happen if the party pushed Sue Bell Cobb into the race just to defeat Davis and she succeeded? Those black voters aren’t going to switch over in droves and vote for the Republican nominee. They just won’t vote. They will feel like they were disenfranchised by their own party and they will sit at home on election day. It will be a bloodbath at the polls for the Democrats in what is already looking like a rough year for them.
I think the Republican nominee can defeat Davis. Polling released by the Davis campaign shows him slightly ahead of Bradley Byrne. I believe more strongly, though, that the GOP candidate can defeat Sparks or Cobb, but if it is perceived that Davis was taken down by his own then it will be a cake walk.
For now I’m content to watch the Democrats try to eat their own in the Gov race and the Republicans do the same in the AG race.
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I’ve been seeing the relationship amongst race in these polls. But we already knew this was going to happen, as we just seen President Obama get well over the majority of the black vote.
But I believe no matter what the Democrats do, I think the GOP will get the win for governor. The sad thing, looking at the websites of all the contenders from both parties, they all are saying the same thing, and giving the same solutions.
It will be interesting to watch all of this unfold. I had no clue that the Democrat party was trying to throw out Davis (as to me that makes no sense), but the Attorney General race will be quite interesting for the Republicans. All good entertainment, but hopefully at the end Alabamians will pick the right people to make the state the best in the USA.
Brian I think a conservative black could win the govs race next year but I don’t think a black lib can.
Bradley – haven’t looked at all the webpages, so I’m asking in earnest – which solutions are all the candidates saying the same thinga and giving the same answer?
It seems I typed out something a little bit different from what I was thinking. The candidates are not all saying to do the same exact thing, but none of them are really showing individualism. When reading their responses on the issues it seems like they are saying the same thing than everyone else is saying, and what everyone else has been saying. I don’t know what that really means: Has no one been doing their job?
Like I said though, they all feel the same. The only candidate for governor that in my opinion has gone a little bit further into the issues is Robert Bentley, and that is just because he has a whole lot more issues on his site. Tim James hasn’t really updated his issue page with more information, and Artur Davis only has four issues at the moment. Poor Ron Sparks has nothing on his web page yet.
It is a shock to me how people can support candidates before they even tell us what their views are. I really do not have enough information to support any of these candidates because they have hardly anything on their websites.
Democrats have a history of eating their own and a candidate who has gone out of his way to upset them (e.g. Davis’s recommendations for the USA and judge positions, with probable reach into other patronage jobs) is asking to marinated and tenderized.
Will be an interesting primaries for sure and possibly entertaining general election.