The numbers don’t lie
While there are lots of factors that play into one’s decision about how to cast his or her ballot, electability is one that invariably gets tossed around. Most of the time it takes the form of an abstract thought process; a rhetorical tool that each candidate can use to bludgeon the other. In the AL-05 Congressional race the Democrat’s nominee is all but certain: Parker Griffith. So it is fair to consider how each of the Republican candidates would measure up against Dr. Griffith in the general election when choosing who to vote for in the primary.
This particular race offers one potential match up that goes beyond the aforementioned abstract thought process: Cheryl Baswell Guthrie vs. Dr. Griffith. They went head to head in 2006 for the chance to represent Alabama’s 7th Senate district, which lies entirely in Madison County. An analysis of the numbers from that election can provide insight into how well Mrs. Guthrie would perform against Dr. Griffith. The results are not pretty.
Griffith won that election handily, pulling in 66% of the votes to Guthrie’s 34% – a 32 point spread. Of the 49 polling places that voted for that seat she only won 4, one of which had only 24 voters. Sobering to say the least.
But, did the party voting demographics hurt Guthrie’s chances then? In other words, did the district lean heavily towards the Democrats? Well, not really.
I looked at 14 different state wide offices that had both a Democrat and Republican running. I calculated the percentage of votes that went to the Republican candidate for each office. I broke the results into two sets of numbers: one comprised only of the polling places that voted in the AL Senate 7th district race and the other consisting of all polling places in the entire 5th Congressional district.
The results are shown below. A negative number indicates that fewer percent of the votes were cast for the Republican candidate in that race in the Senate district by the number of percentage points shown, while a positive number means the Republican candidate fared better in the 7th Senate district.
- Gov.: -1%
- Lt. Gov.: -2%
- AG: -2%
- Chief Justice: -3%
- Supreme, PL 2: -2%
- Supreme, PL 3: -1%
- Supreme, PL 4: +4%
- Civil Appeals, PL 1: -3%
- Civil Appeals, PL 2: -2%
- Civil Appeals, PL 3: -4%
- Sec. of State: -1%
- Treasurer: -2%
- Auditor: -3%
- Ag. Commissioner: -1%
Averaging all fourteen races shows that Guthrie only gave up 2% of the vote to Griffith due solely to party affiliation. Also, there was very little deviation in the voting spread across the fourteen offices, which lends credence to this analysis.
So the end result of a Griffith-Guthrie rematch could end up being just a 30% blowout, rather than a 32% blowout, in favor of Griffith. That isn’t a very appealing thought for Republican voters.
What about money? Did Griffith buy the election? Guthrie spent $284k during the race – $250k of which were personal loans. Griffith spent $761k, of which $427k were personal loans. So clearly Griffith dramatically outspent Guthrie, but Guthrie’s anemic fundraising from individuals isn’t exactly heartening. Self funding a campaign can give a politician a great degree of autonomy if elected, but self funding isn’t the best option when your opponent is willing to nearly double your own contributions.
All in all, the numbers don’t work in Cheryl Baswell Guthrie’s favor.
How conservative is Cheryl Baswell-Gutherie?
From her radio and TV spots, Cheryl takes strong conservative
positions?
Can Cheryl Baswell-Gutherie prove she is a conservative?
In 2006, she ran against Dr. Parker Griffith for State Senate Dist 34,
in the Huntsville area. While running an honorable race, her
advertisements were plain marketing of her name, with little substance
of promoting the conservative agenda.
Can Cheryl Baswell-Gutherie prove she is a conservative from her
personal life?
Cheryl Baswell Guthrie grew up in Huntsville
Her mother, Grace deGraffenried Baswell taught in the Huntsville Public School System for more than twenty years.
Cheryl attended Mountain Gap Elementary School and graduated from Grissom High School in 1978.
Cheryl and her family are members of a moderate Baptist Church, Willowbrook Baptist Church in Huntsville.
Cheryl the political family history is not very conservative.
Her grandfather, Edward deGraffenried , represented Alabama in the
United States Congress in the 1950s, and was known as a Roosevelt New
Deal Democrat, not a conservative.
Uncle Ryan degraffenried, a member of the Alabama State Seance, headed
up the moderate Alabama New South movement in the
1960s, opposing Wallace for Governor in 1962, and was running against
Lurleen Wallace in 1966, when he his life was tragically ended by an
airplane crash. Ryan degraffenried ran as a progressive liberal
Democrat with great emphasis of increasing spending for public schools. He
was supported the the education groups. Ryan Sr.’s was known as a
moderate “New South” Democratic, opposing the conservative traditional
Dixiecrat movement.
In 1966 he ran again as a moderate, supporting racial integration,
sought to succeed George Wallace, who was prohibited from running for a second term. However, one day after qualifying for
run for governor, he died in a plane crash while campaigning in northeast Alabama.
Nomination and governorship then went to Wallace’s wife, Lurleen Wallace.
Ryan degraffenried, Jr, also served in the Alabama State Senate. He
supported more government spending for public schools and higher
taxes. After Governor H. Guy Hunt was removed from office due to criminal conviction, the Lieutenant Governor, Jim
Folsom, Jr.
became the new governor. deGraffenried, as the President Pro Tempore
of the state Senate, became the acting Lt. Governor. The Tax Payers
Defense Funds rated as a high tax liberal, voting for tax increases
70.1% of the time. Ryan degraffenried, Jr was rated 15 out of 36 for
voting for more government spending, therefore rating him in the more
liberal than his colleagues.
Cheryl Baswell Guthrie and her political family deGraffenried have an
interesting family history, but her relatives were on the liberal
side of the fence, reducing her claim to the title of being a
“conservative”.
Cheryl Baswell Guthrie was unknown in conservative circles or in
Republican circles, prior to our announcement for Alabama State
Senate in 2006.
Cheryl Baswell Guthrie may be a “Conservative”, but she does not have a
past reputation, resume, or family history to prove it.