Global Warmitarians flip flop on hurricanes

2005: Is Global Warming Making Hurricanes Worse?

2008: Global warming reducing hurricanes in U.S., report says

Confused?  I am!

Ironically, the 2005 article cited “numerous” studies that found no link between an increase in the number of hurricanes and rising ocean temperatures.  BUT… A study published in the journal Nature concluded that hurricanes have become stronger and longer lasting in the last thirty years, which correlated to an increase in ocean temps.  Naturally, everyone got all hot and bothered.

Fast forward a scant two and a half years and the new report suggests that wind shears caused by high temperatures are causing a slight, but noticeable, decrease in the number of hurricanes that strike the U.S.

The conflicting conclusions underscore the need for caution and critical analysis of scientific findings before making drastic policy and legislative changes that could be unnecessary, inadequate, or (worse yet) counterproductive.

One aspect about the 2005 report troubles me a bit.  I’ll admit that I have not read the report, so I can only hope the authors addressed my concerns, but I know that most Warmitarians do not do so.  Essentially, I’m skeptical about the veracity of comparing storm damage or strength measurement data over long periods of time.  Over time populations along coastlines increase and previously undeveloped coastline is developed.  That alone will cause previously “harmless” storms to cause significant property damage and possibly loss of life.  Also, it seems that the financial composition of coast dwellers is trending in a more affluent direction.  That would indicate that property damage costs would increase for a given storm after accounting for inflation.

Also, measurement techniques are becoming more refined and have enabled us to better identify and characterize the strength of hurricanes than ever before.  Watching hurricane coverage is fascinating.  Meteorologists track the storms from the time they are far from shore in the Atlantic.  They frequently measure the intensity of the storms as they move into the Caribbean.  The categorical ebb and flow is unbelievable.  One day it may be a Cat 5, the next a Cat 3.  All that really matters is the strength when the storm makes land fall, but I wonder how many storms are recorded based on their maximum attained strength – a measurement that may be misleading looking backward since previously storms could not be tracked with the same tool set.

In any event, it should be fun to watch the faithful explain away the new report and proclaim “consensus” despite the obvious lack thereof.