Osama bin Laden has released another tape (transcript here), likely recorded within the last month or so.  The mere fact that the man at the top of the organization responsible for 9/11 is still alive is both depressing and embarrassing.  The fact that he is not only alive, but is releasing propaganda tapes that will doubtlessly fuel pro-jihadi sentiment is revolting.  The sole reason he is still alive can be described with one word: Iraq.

I backed Bush when he sold the Iraq war to the country.  He painted a compelling picture of imminent doom.  We’ve since learned that his portrayal of the threat was grossly over blown - intentionally or not.  As a result we’ve lost more men and women in uniform in Iraq than the number of civilians lost on 9/11.  And what do we have to show for it?  A war with no end in sight (i.e. more American casualties and money).  An enemy, Al-Qaeda, that is at or near 9/11 strength.  A weakened military as a result of seasoned soldiers - the defenders of our nation - killed in action as well as delayed or canceled acquisition, maintenance, and replenishment programs.  Oh, and we still have public enemy number one kicking sand in our face.

Personally, I don’t think there are any good options going forward in Iraq.  They are all varying shades of bad.  I want to say that we should stay and win, but I debate as to whether we can win or will like what we get if we did.  Militarily we can wipe the mat with anyone.  But we’re not in a military conflict.  Our soldiers are acting as glorified policemen; riding around waiting to be attacked by insurgents and only then responding appropriately.  This is not a position we should put our military in.  They are trained and equipped to win wars by killing or otherwise incapacitating the enemy - and they are very good at their job.

I only say I believe claiming victory will be difficult to impossible because we’re not facing an enemy that will just unequivocally surrender one day.  Maybe we can reach the subjective state where we believe violence has subsided to the point that we can leave, but even this is hardly victory in the traditional sense.  Nation building is not an endeavor that ends in a clearly demarcated victory even when it ends well.

But, what happens if we are victorious?  That day, which would be a great day indeed, will be the day we cede full control of Iraq to their elected, democratic government.  It is not exactly a remote possibility that they might elect a group of people like Hezbollah, similar to what happened in Lebanon.  So we could end up trading thousands of American lives and countless billions of dollars for an anti-American, anti-Israel (i.e. regionally destabilizing) government sympathetic to Iran.  That should make us safer.

But getting back to OBL, Newsweek had a good, lengthy description of what happened to the pursuit of OBL and his cohorts when the Iraq war began.  The “dead or alive” rhetoric - which I support 100% - morphed into a policy of putting the top talent and lion’s share of resources into a war with a country that had absolutely nothing to do with 9/11.  The accounts in the article - assuming they are accurate - are disappointing.  There are tales of military officers hesitating at the moment of truth for fear of having a blemish on their records as well as imposing absurd bureaucratic requirements on special forces personnel.  It all points to a failure of leadership.  OBL would be taking a dirt nap right now if Bush had focused all of our efforts on eliminating him; simple as that.

In his tape OBL is critical of, one might even say he is mocking, Democrats - and for good reason.  While the Republicans continue to unconditionally back a war that we shouldn’t be engaged in the Democrats won control of Congress based in part (large part depending on who you’re asking) on Iraq.  Instead of vigorously pushing for the changes demanded of them by the electorate they have instead tried to use the war as a political football, complicitly keeping it going so that they can point to it and tell their supporters how badly the Republicans are screwing things up.  They have no real desire to end the war because they know that if the war is still raging next year it will likely gift wrap the White House for them.

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This entry was posted by Brian on Friday, September 7th, 2007 at 9:57 pm and is filed under Iraq, War on Terror. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site. Please note the copyright policy.